Winterthur vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
30.2%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.2%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.6%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.2%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
45.7%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.9%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
5.1%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.8%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.5%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.5%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-22%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
13
6º
12º
12º
29
2º
11º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
31 | 38 |
1º
|
30% | |
|
2º
|
30 | 37 |
2º
|
16% | |
|
|
4º
|
29 | 36 |
3º
|
12.5% | |
|
5º
|
29 | 36 |
4º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
30 | 34 |
5º
|
11.5% | |
|
6º
|
27 | 34 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 33 |
7º
|
15% | |
|
8º
|
25 | 32 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 30 |
9º
|
42.5% | |
|
10º
|
17 | 21 |
10º
|
63% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 19 |
11º
|
53% | |
|
|
12º
|
13 | 17 |
12º
|
67% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 77.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 22.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
SER
1 - 1
WIN
56%
23%
21%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2024 |
WIN
0 - 3
LAU
39%
25%
37%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | -1 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 3
SIO
35%
26%
40%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
GCZ
1 - 1
WIN
43%
25%
32%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 0
LAU
35%
26%
39%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 4
LUG
38%
25%
37%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
YVE
0 - 1
FCL
32%
24%
45%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 1
YOB
38%
26%
36%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
SIO
4 - 2
FCL
33%
25%
42%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
FCL
2 - 0
GCZ
53%
24%
23%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |