Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.5%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.9%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
19.3%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
12
6º
12º
8º
11
2º
15º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
27 | 77 |
1º
|
63% | |
|
5º
|
16 | 67 |
2º
|
25.5% | |
|
2º
|
22 | 67 |
3º
|
21.5% | |
|
3º
|
16 | 64 |
4º
|
16.5% | |
|
4º
|
16 | 61 |
5º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
15 | 57 |
6º
|
23.5% | |
|
12º
|
10 | 49 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
|
8º
|
12 | 45 |
8º
|
17% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 44 |
9º
|
13.5% | |
|
7º
|
13 | 43 |
10º
|
16% | |
|
13º
|
9 | 39 |
11º
|
10.5% | |
|
15º
|
8 | 38 |
12º
|
10.5% | |
|
16º
|
8 | 38 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
14º
|
9 | 38 |
14º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
11 | 38 |
15º
|
9.5% | |
|
9º
|
12 | 35 |
16º
|
14.5% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 24 |
17º
|
33.5% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 24 |
18º
|
48% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
40% | 8.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
56% | 77% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
2.5% | 9.5% |
|
Relegation
|
1% | 5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Willem II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2024 |
ALM
0 - 1
WIL
25%
25%
51%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
WIL
0 - 2
PSV
22%
21%
56%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
UTR
3 - 2
WIL
54%
23%
24%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
WIL
3 - 0
RKC
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
WIL
1 - 2
SPA
42%
24%
34%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Fortuna Sittard
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
FOR
1 - 0
AZA
22%
23%
55%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
SPA
1 - 1
FOR
59%
23%
18%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
FOR
1 - 3
PSV
16%
19%
65%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
AJA
5 - 0
FOR
70%
19%
11%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 0
FOR
33%
27%
40%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | -1 |