Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 4-3
U. Católica vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.4%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.4%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
14%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
28.5%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
UCH
0 - 0
UCO
53%
23%
24%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2012 |
IND
2 - 2
UCO
53%
24%
23%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 Oct. 2012 |
CSL
2 - 2
UCO
39%
26%
35%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | -1 |
| 24 Oct. 2012 |
ATL
3 - 1
UCO
46%
24%
30%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
UCO
0 - 2
HUA
43%
25%
33%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2012 |
IND
0 - 2
LAN
42%
28%
30%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2012 |
IND
2 - 2
UCO
53%
24%
23%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2012 |
LFC
1 - 2
IND
40%
26%
34%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
ARG
0 - 1
IND
40%
29%
31%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
IND
2 - 0
RAF
41%
28%
31%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |