U. Católica vs Audax Italiano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.4%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
28.8%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.4%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+17%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
17
1º
7º
5º
22
1º
12º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
4º
|
19 | 51 |
1º
|
23.5% | |
|
2º
|
22 | 51 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
|
1º
|
22 | 48 |
3º
|
13% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 47 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
|
6º
|
17 | 46 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
3º
|
22 | 45 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
7º
|
17 | 43 |
7º
|
9% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 42 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 39 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 39 |
10º
|
7% | |
|
11º
|
12 | 38 |
11º
|
12.5% | |
|
12º
|
11 | 35 |
12º
|
10.5% | |
|
15º
|
6 | 35 |
13º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
9 | 35 |
14º
|
8.5% | |
|
16º
|
5 | 34 |
15º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
8 | 31 |
16º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
7.5% | 16.5% |
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
21.5% | 28% |
|
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
|
34.5% | 38% |
|
Mid-table
|
35% | 17% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2025 |
ULC
2 - 2
UCO
45%
25%
30%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
SAN
2 - 1
UCO
13%
20%
67%
|
77 | 57 | 20 | -1 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
UCO
1 - 0
EVE
46%
24%
30%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
SPC
2 - 1
UCO
62%
20%
18%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
UCO
1 - 2
COQ
48%
26%
26%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Audax Italiano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2025 |
ACS
3 - 1
UNI
41%
25%
35%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2025 |
PAL
0 - 2
ACS
56%
22%
23%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
PAL
2 - 0
ACS
54%
23%
23%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
ACS
4 - 1
DCO
57%
24%
20%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
ACS
0 - 2
HUA
39%
26%
35%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |