UPDF vs Gaddafi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.5%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.9%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.5%
26%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
36.5%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.2%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.6%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-19%
-36%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UPDF
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2021 |
URA
3 - 1
UPD
50%
25%
26%
|
37 | 40 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2021 |
UPD
1 - 0
EXP
43%
27%
31%
|
36 | 38 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 2021 |
OND
1 - 1
UPD
31%
23%
46%
|
36 | 32 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2021 |
UPD
2 - 1
SCV
47%
24%
30%
|
35 | 36 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 May. 2021 |
URA
2 - 1
UPD
51%
24%
25%
|
36 | 39 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Gaddafi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2021 |
GAD
1 - 0
BRI
57%
23%
19%
|
38 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2021 |
SOA
1 - 1
GAD
51%
24%
25%
|
38 | 40 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2021 |
KCC
2 - 1
GAD
60%
20%
20%
|
39 | 40 | 1 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 2021 |
GAD
0 - 2
JIN
69%
19%
12%
|
40 | 34 | 6 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 2021 |
KIB
1 - 0
GAD
8%
14%
77%
|
48 | 12 | 36 | -8 |