Liga MX Finals Cl. Playoffs Quarter-finals
Global 4-5
Toluca vs Tigres UANL analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.4%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.7%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
25.2%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2023 |
TIG
4 - 1
TOL
43%
25%
32%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
TOL
3 - 0
NEC
72%
18%
11%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
TOL
1 - 1
JUA
78%
15%
8%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
PUM
3 - 1
TOL
32%
25%
43%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
PUE
1 - 2
TOL
36%
26%
39%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Tigres UANL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 2023 |
TIG
4 - 1
TOL
43%
25%
32%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2023 |
TIG
1 - 0
PUE
52%
25%
23%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2023 |
LEO
3 - 1
TIG
51%
24%
25%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2023 |
LEO
3 - 0
TIG
49%
25%
26%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2023 |
TIG
2 - 1
LEO
47%
25%
27%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | -1 |