Stoke City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.4%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.4%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
17.4%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2004 |
CAR
0 - 1
STO
50%
25%
25%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2004 |
OLD
2 - 1
STO
44%
25%
31%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
STO
2 - 0
GIL
54%
25%
21%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2004 |
ROT
1 - 1
STO
47%
26%
28%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2004 |
SHE
0 - 0
STO
60%
23%
17%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2004 |
DER
2 - 4
CRE
51%
24%
26%
|
60 | 62 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2004 |
LIN
3 - 1
DER
40%
27%
34%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2004 |
QPR
0 - 2
DER
55%
25%
20%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2004 |
DER
3 - 2
IPS
30%
25%
45%
|
59 | 72 | 13 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2004 |
DER
1 - 2
LEI
27%
25%
48%
|
60 | 75 | 15 | -1 |