Siena vs Livorno analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.7%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.9%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
27.5%
Draw
0-0
9%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.5%
31.8%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+29%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
1º
5º
4º
27
1º
8º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
27 | 71 |
1º
|
72% | |
|
2º
|
22 | 62 |
2º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 59 |
3º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
21 | 59 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
18 | 56 |
5º
|
14% | |
|
10º
|
16 | 55 |
6º
|
12.5% | |
|
6º
|
20 | 52 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 51 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
3º
|
22 | 48 |
9º
|
13% | |
|
13º
|
14 | 43 |
10º
|
9% | |
|
15º
|
13 | 42 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
5º
|
20 | 42 |
12º
|
8% | |
|
12º
|
14 | 40 |
13º
|
11% | |
|
17º
|
10 | 39 |
14º
|
6.5% | |
|
9º
|
17 | 39 |
15º
|
13.5% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 36 |
16º
|
17% | |
|
16º
|
11 | 34 |
17º
|
21% | |
|
18º
|
4 | 21 |
18º
|
76.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
4.5% | 72% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
50.5% | 26% |
|
Mid-table
|
44% | 2% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
1% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Siena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
ORV
0 - 0
SIE
30%
26%
44%
|
48 | 39 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
SIE
3 - 2
SER
52%
25%
23%
|
48 | 43 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
GGV
0 - 0
SIE
18%
23%
60%
|
48 | 15 | 33 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
SIE
1 - 0
FLA
54%
24%
22%
|
48 | 42 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
SIE
1 - 0
MON
52%
25%
23%
|
47 | 44 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Livorno
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
LIV
2 - 0
OST
75%
16%
9%
|
48 | 37 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
SDT
0 - 0
LIV
16%
23%
61%
|
48 | 34 | 14 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
LIV
5 - 2
GRO
45%
25%
30%
|
47 | 48 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
FEZ
1 - 2
LIV
20%
24%
56%
|
46 | 35 | 11 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
GAV
2 - 2
LIV
48%
25%
27%
|
46 | 47 | 1 | 0 |