Serra FC vs Estrela do Norte analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.1%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.1%
2-0
13.2%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.1%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.2%
11.7%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Serra FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb. 2024 |
POR
2 - 1
SER
26%
22%
52%
|
53 | 46 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
SER
0 - 1
RVV
57%
22%
21%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | -1 |
| 07 Feb. 2024 |
REA
5 - 1
SER
31%
25%
44%
|
55 | 51 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
SER
5 - 0
JAG
48%
23%
29%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | +1 |
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
NVE
1 - 1
SER
42%
23%
36%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Estrela do Norte
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb. 2024 |
EST
0 - 0
RVV
25%
24%
51%
|
39 | 47 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
JAG
2 - 0
EST
61%
21%
18%
|
40 | 48 | 8 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2024 |
EST
0 - 1
RIO
17%
24%
60%
|
40 | 53 | 13 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
DES
2 - 0
EST
45%
26%
29%
|
42 | 42 | 0 | -2 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
EST
1 - 1
POR
28%
24%
48%
|
42 | 45 | 3 | 0 |