Uruguay vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.2%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.1%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.2%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
26.2%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 1986 |
USA
1 - 1
URU
29%
26%
46%
|
87 | 66 | 21 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1986 |
URU
3 - 1
CAN
75%
17%
8%
|
86 | 68 | 18 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 1985 |
CHI
1 - 0
URU
47%
27%
25%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 1985 |
FRA
2 - 0
URU
64%
22%
14%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1985 |
JPN
1 - 4
URU
29%
30%
41%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec. 1985 |
TUR
1 - 1
POL
23%
27%
50%
|
87 | 67 | 20 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1985 |
TUN
1 - 0
POL
26%
28%
47%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 1985 |
POL
1 - 0
ITA
43%
28%
29%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 1985 |
POL
0 - 0
BEL
60%
23%
17%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1985 |
CSK
3 - 1
POL
56%
23%
20%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |