Mexico vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
15.7%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2021 |
SLV
0 - 2
MEX
7%
19%
75%
|
92 | 71 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2021 |
MEX
3 - 0
HND
78%
15%
7%
|
91 | 80 | 11 | +1 |
| 08 Oct. 2021 |
MEX
1 - 1
CAN
77%
16%
8%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2021 |
PAN
1 - 1
MEX
6%
18%
75%
|
92 | 79 | 13 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2021 |
CRC
0 - 1
MEX
12%
21%
67%
|
92 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2021 |
COL
0 - 0
ECU
60%
23%
18%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2021 |
VEN
2 - 1
ECU
36%
26%
39%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2021 |
ECU
3 - 0
BOL
79%
14%
7%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2021 |
URU
1 - 0
ECU
63%
20%
17%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
ECU
0 - 0
CHI
45%
24%
31%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |