Italy vs Sweden analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.8%
Win probability
2.8
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.6%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.5%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
6%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.2%
14.8%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14.8%
11.4%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May. 1970 |
POR
1 - 2
ITA
31%
27%
42%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1970 |
ESP
2 - 2
ITA
47%
25%
28%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 1969 |
ITA
3 - 0
DDR
80%
13%
7%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 1969 |
ITA
4 - 1
WAL
83%
12%
6%
|
90 | 72 | 18 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1969 |
ITA
0 - 0
BGR
79%
14%
7%
|
90 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Sweden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 1970 |
HUN
1 - 2
SWE
77%
14%
9%
|
86 | 92 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1970 |
MEX
0 - 1
SWE
42%
25%
33%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1970 |
MEX
0 - 0
SWE
42%
25%
33%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1969 |
FRA
3 - 0
SWE
38%
25%
37%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1969 |
SWE
2 - 0
FRA
76%
15%
9%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |