Italy vs Paraguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.9%
Win probability
3.29
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
10-3
<0%
+7
1.6%
6-0
2.3%
7-1
1.1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.7%
5-0
4.1%
6-1
2.4%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
7.2%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
4.4%
6-2
1.3%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
12.2%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
6.7%
5-2
2.3%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
17.2%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.6%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
4.2%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.4%
11.6%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
4.5%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
11.6%
8.4%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
5.6%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun. 1950 |
SWE
3 - 2
ITA
63%
18%
20%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1950 |
AUT
1 - 0
ITA
49%
21%
30%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 1950 |
ITA
3 - 1
BEL
83%
10%
7%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 1949 |
ENG
2 - 0
ITA
63%
18%
19%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 1949 |
HUN
1 - 1
ITA
58%
19%
23%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Paraguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun. 1950 |
SWE
2 - 2
PAR
83%
10%
7%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1950 |
BRA
3 - 3
PAR
76%
13%
11%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1950 |
BRA
2 - 0
PAR
76%
13%
11%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1950 |
PAR
3 - 2
URU
49%
20%
31%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1950 |
ARG
4 - 0
PAR
77%
13%
10%
|
74 | 89 | 15 | 0 |