Italy vs Austria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.7%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.8%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.3%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
7%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
16.8%
15.2%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 1956 |
SUI
1 - 1
ITA
42%
23%
35%
|
87 | 69 | 18 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 1956 |
BRA
2 - 0
ITA
62%
19%
19%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 1956 |
ARG
1 - 0
ITA
64%
19%
17%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Apr. 1956 |
ITA
3 - 0
BRA
60%
19%
21%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | +1 |
| 15 Feb. 1956 |
ITA
2 - 0
FRA
74%
15%
12%
|
87 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Austria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 1956 |
AUT
0 - 2
HUN
33%
20%
47%
|
83 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1956 |
AUT
7 - 0
LUX
85%
9%
6%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 1956 |
YUG
1 - 1
AUT
66%
17%
17%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1956 |
SCO
1 - 1
AUT
50%
22%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1956 |
AUT
2 - 3
BRA
53%
20%
27%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | 0 |