Northern Ireland vs Scotland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.2%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.9%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
33.8%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
4%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
9.9%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 1959 |
NIR
4 - 1
WAL
48%
20%
31%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1958 |
SCO
2 - 2
NIR
72%
16%
11%
|
67 | 83 | 16 | +1 |
| 15 Oct. 1958 |
ESP
6 - 2
NIR
81%
12%
7%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 1958 |
NIR
3 - 3
ENG
29%
22%
49%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 1958 |
FRA
4 - 0
NIR
83%
10%
7%
|
69 | 80 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Scotland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 1959 |
POR
1 - 0
SCO
42%
23%
35%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1959 |
NED
1 - 2
SCO
51%
21%
28%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 May. 1959 |
SCO
3 - 2
GER
39%
23%
38%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1959 |
ENG
1 - 0
SCO
80%
12%
8%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1958 |
SCO
2 - 2
NIR
72%
16%
11%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | 0 |