Germany vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.3%
Win probability
2.29
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.4%
14.3%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 2012 |
GER
4 - 2
GRC
86%
10%
4%
|
97 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2012 |
DEN
1 - 2
GER
15%
18%
67%
|
97 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2012 |
NED
1 - 2
GER
43%
22%
35%
|
97 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2012 |
GER
1 - 0
POR
66%
18%
15%
|
96 | 94 | 2 | +1 |
| 31 May. 2012 |
GER
2 - 0
ISR
85%
11%
5%
|
97 | 86 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun. 2012 |
ENG
0 - 0
ITA
61%
21%
18%
|
95 | 97 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2012 |
ITA
2 - 0
IRL
56%
24%
20%
|
94 | 91 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 Jun. 2012 |
ITA
1 - 1
CRO
45%
25%
30%
|
94 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 2012 |
ESP
1 - 1
ITA
72%
17%
11%
|
94 | 99 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2012 |
ITA
0 - 3
RUS
60%
23%
17%
|
95 | 91 | 4 | -1 |