Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 3-1
Roma vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.8%
1-0
8%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.7%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
38.2%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.1%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
11.3%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2024 |
ACM
0 - 1
ROM
58%
23%
19%
|
92 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ROM
1 - 0
LAZ
50%
24%
27%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2024 |
LEC
0 - 0
ROM
23%
24%
53%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
ROM
1 - 0
SAS
68%
19%
13%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
BHA
1 - 0
ROM
48%
25%
28%
|
91 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
SAS
3 - 3
ACM
22%
23%
56%
|
94 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2024 |
ACM
0 - 1
ROM
58%
23%
19%
|
94 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ACM
3 - 0
LEC
78%
15%
6%
|
94 | 81 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
FIO
1 - 2
ACM
31%
25%
45%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
VER
1 - 3
ACM
16%
22%
62%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | 0 |