Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 5-4Real Madrid vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.2%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.8%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.3%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
26.4%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2022 |
RMA
2 - 0
GET
80%
14%
6%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2022 |
CHL
1 - 3
RMA
43%
25%
32%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2022 |
CEL
1 - 2
RMA
15%
21%
64%
|
93 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2022 |
RMA
0 - 4
FCB
52%
23%
26%
|
94 | 91 | 3 | -1 |
| 14 Mar. 2022 |
MLL
0 - 3
RMA
8%
18%
74%
|
94 | 78 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2022 |
SOU
0 - 6
CHL
16%
22%
62%
|
93 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2022 |
CHL
1 - 3
RMA
43%
25%
32%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2022 |
CHL
1 - 4
BRE
73%
18%
10%
|
93 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2022 |
MID
0 - 2
CHL
6%
17%
77%
|
93 | 74 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2022 |
LIL
1 - 2
CHL
15%
23%
62%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |