Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.5%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.4%
15.1%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+31%
-9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
17
2º
5º
2º
4
8º
12º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
4º
|
12 | 46 |
1º
|
64% | |
|
|
1º
|
17 | 42 |
2º
|
36.5% | |
|
3º
|
13 | 37 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
2º
|
14 | 36 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
6º
|
11 | 33 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
5º
|
11 | 33 |
6º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 31 |
7º
|
14% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 29 |
8º
|
20.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 25 |
9º
|
20% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 24 |
10º
|
23.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
4 | 16 |
11º
|
41% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 15 |
12º
|
60% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
92% | 1.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
8% | 98.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penybont
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
HAV
0 - 0
PEN
42%
26%
32%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
0 - 0
NEW
44%
25%
31%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
BRI
0 - 2
PEN
26%
25%
50%
|
66 | 54 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
BRI
0 - 3
PEN
26%
22%
52%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
MER
0 - 1
PEN
10%
17%
73%
|
65 | 41 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Aberystwyth Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
ABE
1 - 0
BAR
43%
26%
31%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
ABE
1 - 1
CON
27%
26%
47%
|
54 | 66 | 12 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
NEW
4 - 1
ABE
67%
20%
14%
|
55 | 65 | 10 | -1 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
COL
0 - 2
ABE
42%
23%
35%
|
54 | 51 | 3 | +1 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
CIN
1 - 2
ABE
6%
14%
81%
|
54 | 17 | 37 | 0 |