Penya Independent vs Manacor analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.2%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
8%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.4%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
14.2%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-23%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
1º
3º
1º
17
6º
15º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
26 | 76 |
1º
|
69.5% | |
|
2º
|
22 | 68 |
2º
|
37.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 62 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
3º
|
22 | 62 |
4º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
19 | 57 |
5º
|
16% | |
|
|
7º
|
17 | 55 |
6º
|
21.5% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 51 |
7º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
16 | 48 |
8º
|
10% | |
|
5º
|
19 | 48 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 47 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 40 |
11º
|
12% | |
|
14º
|
9 | 36 |
12º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 35 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
9 | 35 |
14º
|
8.5% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 32 |
15º
|
14% | |
|
17º
|
9 | 32 |
16º
|
15% | |
|
12º
|
12 | 31 |
17º
|
22% | |
|
18º
|
7 | 29 |
18º
|
29.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
69.5% | 2% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
29.5% | 30% |
|
Mid-table
|
1% | 66.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 1.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penya Independent
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
MJG
1 - 1
PIN
12%
20%
67%
|
44 | 25 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
PIN
4 - 2
JOR
71%
18%
12%
|
44 | 31 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
ALC
0 - 3
PIN
19%
24%
57%
|
43 | 32 | 11 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
MNC
1 - 1
PIN
28%
24%
48%
|
43 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
PIN
1 - 1
PXD
24%
22%
54%
|
42 | 50 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Manacor
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 2024 |
MNC
0 - 0
CAS
47%
25%
28%
|
36 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
MNC
1 - 1
CFP
48%
27%
25%
|
36 | 38 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
CON
1 - 1
MNC
35%
25%
40%
|
36 | 33 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
MNC
0 - 0
POR
55%
21%
24%
|
36 | 32 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
MNC
1 - 1
PIN
28%
24%
48%
|
35 | 43 | 8 | +1 |