Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 3-2
Peñarol vs Danubio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.8%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.1%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.4%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.4%
10.8%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2004 |
PEÑ
3 - 3
LFC
66%
20%
14%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2004 |
PEÑ
0 - 0
MWA
72%
18%
10%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
CSC
1 - 1
PEÑ
18%
22%
61%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2004 |
DAN
1 - 2
PEÑ
32%
23%
45%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 2004 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
AME
38%
24%
38%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Danubio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2004 |
DAN
3 - 1
FEN
47%
25%
28%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2004 |
NAC
1 - 1
DAN
55%
23%
22%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
MWA
1 - 1
DAN
51%
24%
25%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2004 |
DAN
1 - 2
PEÑ
32%
23%
45%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | -1 |
| 09 Dec. 2003 |
DAN
0 - 4
TAC
59%
23%
19%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |