Pau FC vs Bastia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.6%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.3%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.7%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
32.6%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
4º
11º
8º
11
1º
8º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
4º
|
10 | 65 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 61 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 56 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 54 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
1º
|
11 | 52 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
8 | 48 |
6º
|
4.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 48 |
7º
|
6.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
8 | 48 |
8º
|
8.5% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 46 |
9º
|
9% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 45 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 44 |
11º
|
5.5% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 44 |
12º
|
8% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
8º
|
9 | 43 |
14º
|
6% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 40 |
15º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 35 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 35 |
17º
|
12% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 33 |
18º
|
29% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
6% | 12% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
20.5% | 30.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
66.5% | 53.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
3% | 2.5% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 1.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pau FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
DUN
3 - 2
PAU
34%
26%
40%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
PAU
3 - 0
FCM
52%
25%
23%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
GRE
1 - 1
PAU
37%
27%
36%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
PAU
1 - 0
CAE
39%
26%
36%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
CLE
2 - 2
PAU
54%
25%
22%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Bastia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 1
PFC
33%
28%
38%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
0 - 0
TRO
49%
26%
25%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
FCM
0 - 1
BAS
39%
26%
35%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | +1 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 0
AMI
42%
27%
31%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
MET
1 - 1
BAS
54%
24%
22%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | +1 |