Pau FC vs Bastia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.3%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
31.1%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
4º
13º
11º
16
1º
11º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
26 | 67 |
1º
|
51.5% | |
|
1º
|
27 | 63 |
2º
|
31% | |
|
3º
|
25 | 60 |
3º
|
25% | |
|
6º
|
22 | 52 |
4º
|
11.5% | |
|
4º
|
25 | 52 |
5º
|
12% | |
|
5º
|
22 | 51 |
6º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
18 | 48 |
7º
|
7% | |
|
13º
|
16 | 46 |
8º
|
4.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
16 | 46 |
9º
|
11.5% | |
|
7º
|
20 | 46 |
10º
|
5% | |
|
|
9º
|
19 | 45 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
8º
|
19 | 43 |
12º
|
7.5% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 42 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 41 |
14º
|
11% | |
|
17º
|
14 | 40 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
14º
|
15 | 38 |
16º
|
15% | |
|
15º
|
14 | 34 |
17º
|
30.5% | |
|
18º
|
9 | 29 |
18º
|
59% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
1.5% | 2% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
10.5% | 15% |
|
Mid-table
|
77.5% | 77% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
7.5% | 4% |
|
Relegation
|
3% | 2% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pau FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 2024 |
GUI
0 - 1
PAU
47%
25%
28%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2024 |
STL
3 - 1
PAU
40%
26%
34%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 2024 |
PAU
1 - 0
LOR
28%
26%
47%
|
70 | 79 | 9 | +1 |
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
DUN
3 - 2
PAU
34%
26%
40%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
PAU
3 - 0
FCM
52%
25%
23%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Bastia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 2024 |
BAS
0 - 0
CLE
35%
28%
37%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
ANN
41%
27%
32%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2024 |
DUN
2 - 1
BAS
34%
27%
39%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 1
PFC
34%
28%
38%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
BAS
0 - 0
TRO
49%
26%
25%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |