Paços de Ferreira vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.9%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
19.5%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.1%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
3º
17º
11º
11
1º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
9º
|
6 | 58 |
1º
|
19.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 56 |
2º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 54 |
3º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 54 |
4º
|
10.5% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 53 |
5º
|
5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 51 |
6º
|
5.5% | |
|
11º
|
5 | 48 |
7º
|
9% | |
|
|
1º
|
11 | 48 |
8º
|
7% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 48 |
9º
|
5.5% | |
|
12º
|
5 | 48 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
17º
|
4 | 47 |
11º
|
10% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 47 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 46 |
13º
|
8% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 45 |
14º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 42 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
18º
|
2 | 33 |
16º
|
15.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 32 |
17º
|
18% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 28 |
18º
|
39% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
7.5% | 8% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
7% | 8% |
|
Mid-table
|
78% | 80% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
3% | 1.5% |
|
Relegation
|
4.5% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paços de Ferreira
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
LEX
3 - 3
PAÇ
33%
29%
37%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
PAÇ
1 - 2
MAR
39%
26%
35%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
MAF
0 - 1
PAÇ
45%
27%
27%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
1 - 1
PAÇ
8%
19%
72%
|
67 | 40 | 27 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
PAÇ
2 - 1
OSL
83%
13%
5%
|
67 | 43 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
2 - 2
TON
36%
27%
37%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
VIZ
1 - 2
PEN
65%
21%
14%
|
61 | 71 | 10 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
4 - 3
OLI
47%
26%
27%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
BOA
1 - 5
PEN
69%
19%
12%
|
60 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 0
PEN
79%
14%
7%
|
60 | 81 | 21 | 0 |