Newcastle vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.1%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.7%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.6%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
50.4%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.7%
0-2
8.9%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.4%
0-3
4.8%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.4%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
3º
12º
5º
50
2º
5º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
56 | 91 |
1º
|
95.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
50 | 79 |
2º
|
70.5% | |
|
5º
|
41 | 73 |
3º
|
52% | |
|
4º
|
43 | 67 |
4º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
41 | 62 |
5º
|
24% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 62 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 58 |
7º
|
29% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 55 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
10º
|
34 | 52 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
27 | 51 |
10º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 51 |
11º
|
15.5% | |
|
13º
|
29 | 50 |
12º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
31 | 49 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 48 |
14º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
27 | 46 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
16º
|
26 | 41 |
16º
|
35.5% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 34 |
17º
|
50% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 29 |
18º
|
40.5% | |
|
19º
|
16 | 28 |
19º
|
43% | |
|
20º
|
9 | 21 |
20º
|
82% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 4.5% |
|
Champions League
|
20% | 94.5% |
|
Europa League
|
24% | 1% |
|
Mid-table
|
56% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 0
CHL
34%
25%
42%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
CHL
2 - 1
NEW
51%
23%
26%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
NEW
0 - 1
BHA
47%
24%
29%
|
93 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
EVE
0 - 0
NEW
21%
23%
56%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 0
AFC
85%
12%
4%
|
93 | 66 | 27 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
PNE
0 - 3
ARS
9%
18%
73%
|
98 | 76 | 22 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
ARS
2 - 2
LIV
35%
23%
41%
|
98 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2024 |
ARS
1 - 0
SHA
84%
12%
5%
|
98 | 84 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
BOU
2 - 0
ARS
14%
20%
66%
|
98 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
ARS
3 - 1
SOU
84%
12%
5%
|
98 | 84 | 14 | 0 |