Nacional vs Varzim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.4%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22.9%
15.7%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2019 |
BEN
1 - 0
NAC
26%
23%
51%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2019 |
NAC
4 - 1
POR
59%
23%
18%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2019 |
ESP
2 - 0
NAC
5%
11%
84%
|
69 | 47 | 22 | -2 |
| 21 Sep. 2019 |
NAC
2 - 1
PEN
54%
24%
22%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2019 |
ACA
1 - 2
NAC
27%
25%
48%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Varzim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2019 |
VAR
2 - 1
CHA
25%
27%
48%
|
61 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2019 |
VAR
1 - 0
EST
25%
24%
51%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2019 |
CAL
0 - 1
VAR
12%
21%
67%
|
60 | 40 | 20 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2019 |
MAF
1 - 1
VAR
46%
28%
26%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2019 |
VAR
2 - 1
COV
42%
29%
30%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | +1 |