Nacional vs Moreirense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.6%
2-0
4.8%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.9%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.7%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
44.6%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.1%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.3%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
8º
17º
14º
23
4º
11º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 77 |
1º
|
71% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 71 |
2º
|
31.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
31.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 53 |
5º
|
40% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
23 | 44 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 43 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 40 |
12º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 40 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
19 | 35 |
14º
|
25.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
28.5% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
27% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 27 |
17º
|
20% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
18º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
88.5% | 99.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
7.5% | 0.5% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
GFC
2 - 1
NAC
50%
26%
25%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
BOA
45%
25%
30%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
ESA
2 - 0
NAC
39%
26%
35%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 0
SAN
38%
27%
35%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2024 |
SCP
3 - 1
NAC
79%
14%
7%
|
73 | 88 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Moreirense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Dec. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 1
SCP
27%
23%
50%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
RIO
3 - 2
MOR
40%
26%
34%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 1
FCP
30%
25%
46%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | +1 |
| 08 Nov. 2024 |
MOR
3 - 2
GFC
59%
23%
18%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
VIT
1 - 0
MOR
58%
23%
19%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |