Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.6%
2-0
9%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
24.6%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 1996 |
CRZ
3 - 1
NAC
59%
23%
18%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1996 |
NAC
1 - 1
CRZ
44%
28%
28%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1995 |
EST
2 - 2
NAC
43%
27%
30%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 1995 |
FLA
1 - 0
NAC
57%
23%
20%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1995 |
NAC
4 - 0
EST
57%
25%
18%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep. 1996 |
SAN
3 - 0
PEÑ
64%
20%
16%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1996 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
SAN
40%
28%
32%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 May. 1996 |
PEÑ
1 - 5
SLO
39%
26%
35%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 May. 1996 |
SLO
3 - 2
PEÑ
61%
21%
18%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1996 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
UNI
54%
26%
20%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | -1 |