Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.7%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.7%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.1%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.8%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.9%
13.4%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
+16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 1968 |
NAC
2 - 2
GUA
72%
16%
12%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1968 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
NAC
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1967 |
RAC
2 - 1
NAC
69%
17%
14%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 1967 |
NAC
0 - 0
RAC
71%
16%
13%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Aug. 1967 |
RAC
0 - 0
NAC
69%
17%
14%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 1968 |
PEÑ
4 - 0
LIB
70%
17%
13%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1968 |
GUA
2 - 0
LIB
56%
21%
23%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | -1 |