Modena vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.1%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.7%
1-0
13.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
18.7%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+22%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 1965 |
MOD
0 - 2
LEC
47%
28%
25%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1965 |
USA
0 - 0
MOD
45%
29%
26%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1965 |
MOD
1 - 3
MES
52%
27%
22%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Sep. 1965 |
PIS
1 - 0
MOD
39%
31%
30%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 1965 |
MOD
0 - 0
POT
50%
26%
24%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 1965 |
PRO
0 - 1
NOV
48%
27%
25%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1965 |
NOV
1 - 3
MAN
36%
30%
34%
|
60 | 71 | 11 | -1 |
| 03 Oct. 1965 |
REG
0 - 0
NOV
51%
26%
23%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1965 |
NOV
1 - 1
FCC
46%
28%
26%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1965 |
NOV
3 - 0
FOR
51%
26%
23%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | +1 |