Serie A round 18

Milan vs Roma analysis

Milan Roma
98 ELO 95
4.9% Tilt 4.5%
17º General ELO ranking 29º
Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
62%
Milan
21.5%
Draw
16.5%
Roma

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62%
Win probability
Milan
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
16.5%
Win probability
Roma
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →

Points and table prediction

Milan
Their league position
Roma
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
16º
19
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Inter
34
88
57%
Atalanta
40
86
40.5%
Napoli
38
78
37%
Lazio
34
74
25.5%
Juventus
31
71
19.5%
Milan
26
70
26.5%
Fiorentina
31
68
30.5%
Bologna
28
60
43.5%
Roma
10º
19
51
34.5%
Udinese
20
46
10º
18.5%
Torino
12º
19
45
11º
16%
Empoli
11º
19
41
12º
20%
Genoa
13º
16
39
13º
13.5%
Parma
15º
15
37
14º
10%
Lecce
14º
16
35
15º
12%
Cagliari
18º
14
34
16º
10%
Como
16º
15
34
17º
12%
Hellas Verona
17º
15
34
18º
13.5%
AC Monza
20º
10
33
19º
14%
Venezia
19º
13
32
20º
25.5%
Expected probabilities
Milan
Roma
Champion
0.5% 0%
Champions League
21.5% 0%
Europa League
25% 0%
Conference League knock out round
26.5% 0.5%
Mid-table
26.5% 99.5%
Relegation
0% 0%

ELO progression

Milan
Roma
Bologna
Cagliari
Como
Lazio
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Milan
Milan
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
20 Dec. 2024
VER
Hellas Verona
0 - 1
Milan
ACM
16%
21%
63%
97 85 12 0
15 Dec. 2024
ACM
Milan
0 - 0
Genoa
GEN
80%
14%
6%
97 89 8 0
11 Dec. 2024
ACM
Milan
2 - 1
Crvena Zvezda
CRV
83%
12%
5%
97 82 15 0
06 Dec. 2024
ATL
Atalanta
2 - 1
Milan
ACM
62%
20%
19%
97 99 2 0
03 Dec. 2024
ACM
Milan
6 - 1
Sassuolo
SAS
77%
15%
8%
97 88 9 0

Matches

Roma
Roma
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
22 Dec. 2024
ROM
Roma
5 - 0
Parma
PAR
71%
18%
11%
95 87 8 0
18 Dec. 2024
ROM
Roma
4 - 1
Sampdoria
SAM
80%
14%
6%
94 80 14 +1
15 Dec. 2024
COM
Como
2 - 0
Roma
ROM
18%
24%
58%
95 82 13 -1
12 Dec. 2024
ROM
Roma
3 - 0
Sporting Braga
SPB
64%
20%
16%
94 88 6 +1
07 Dec. 2024
ROM
Roma
4 - 1
Lecce
LEC
76%
17%
7%
94 85 9 0