CD Mensajero vs Ibarra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.3%
Win probability
2.75
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.5%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.7%
4-0
7.6%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
<0%
+4
11%
3-0
11.1%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.5%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.3%
12.9%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
12.9%
6.8%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
5.1%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
+73%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
58
1º
6º
1º
25
5º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
58 | 59 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
52 | 55 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 54 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
4º
|
67.5% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 48 |
5º
|
45.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 47 |
7º
|
30% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
85.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
10º
|
37 | 38 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
62% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
82.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
25 | 26 |
14º
|
70.5% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
70.5% | |
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
100% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
CD Mensajero
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2022 |
MAR
2 - 0
CDM
15%
21%
64%
|
37 | 22 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2022 |
CSU
2 - 1
CDM
17%
22%
60%
|
39 | 26 | 13 | -2 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
CDM
5 - 2
UDG
73%
16%
11%
|
38 | 26 | 12 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
ARU
2 - 3
CDM
26%
24%
51%
|
38 | 27 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
CDM
1 - 0
LPA
56%
22%
22%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Ibarra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov. 2022 |
UDI
0 - 0
MAR
36%
24%
39%
|
20 | 22 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
UPR
1 - 1
UDI
67%
19%
14%
|
20 | 26 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
CDT
2 - 2
UDI
77%
15%
8%
|
19 | 34 | 15 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
UDI
0 - 3
UDS
12%
18%
69%
|
21 | 37 | 16 | -2 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
YAI
2 - 2
UDI
56%
22%
22%
|
21 | 23 | 2 | 0 |