Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.4%
19.1%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-24%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
3º
12º
5º
17
2º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
12% | 1% |
|
Next round
|
67% | 27.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
21% | 71.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
53%
23%
23%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
3 - 3
CCM
44%
24%
32%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
1 - 1
HAN
50%
22%
28%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2023 |
PER
1 - 2
MCI
20%
24%
56%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 2
MCI
24%
24%
52%
|
75 | 63 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Brisbane Roar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Dec. 2023 |
BRI
0 - 3
CCM
31%
26%
44%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2023 |
WUF
2 - 1
BRI
32%
26%
41%
|
70 | 64 | 6 | -1 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
ADE
0 - 2
BRI
50%
25%
26%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2023 |
BRI
2 - 2
WES
33%
26%
41%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
BRI
2 - 1
PER
53%
25%
23%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |