Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.5%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.3%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.4%
11%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.5%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 1952 |
MUD
2 - 1
BPO
65%
19%
17%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1952 |
BPO
0 - 0
MUD
44%
23%
33%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 1952 |
CHL
2 - 3
MUD
34%
24%
43%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 1952 |
LIV
1 - 2
MUD
39%
24%
37%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1952 |
MUD
3 - 2
MID
70%
17%
14%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec. 1952 |
OPA
2 - 2
DER
62%
19%
18%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1952 |
DER
3 - 0
OPA
48%
22%
30%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 1952 |
DER
4 - 3
BOL
56%
21%
23%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 1952 |
PNE
3 - 0
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1952 |
DER
4 - 0
STO
68%
17%
15%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |