Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.7%
Win probability
2.41
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.1%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.9%
15.4%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1934 |
ARS
3 - 0
MAC
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1934 |
MAC
3 - 3
BBU
66%
18%
17%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1934 |
MID
1 - 2
MAC
53%
23%
25%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1934 |
LEI
1 - 3
MAC
58%
21%
21%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1934 |
MAC
3 - 1
STO
69%
17%
14%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 1934 |
DER
1 - 4
GRI
64%
18%
18%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1934 |
PNE
0 - 1
DER
43%
24%
33%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1934 |
DER
2 - 1
TOT
65%
19%
16%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1934 |
SUN
1 - 4
DER
63%
20%
18%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1934 |
DER
1 - 1
LEI
61%
19%
20%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |