Manchester City vs Chelsea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.2%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.5%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.8%
14%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
7º
3º
40
2º
17º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 89 |
1º
|
93.5% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 77 |
2º
|
51% | |
|
|
4º
|
41 | 74 |
3º
|
46% | |
|
|
6º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
32.5% | |
|
5º
|
41 | 65 |
5º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 59 |
6º
|
19% | |
|
3º
|
44 | 59 |
7º
|
16% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 58 |
8º
|
19% | |
|
9º
|
34 | 55 |
9º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
29 | 53 |
10º
|
20% | |
|
10º
|
33 | 51 |
11º
|
24% | |
|
11º
|
31 | 50 |
12º
|
13.5% | |
|
15º
|
24 | 48 |
13º
|
17% | |
|
14º
|
27 | 46 |
14º
|
20.5% | |
|
13º
|
27 | 45 |
15º
|
18.5% | |
|
16º
|
23 | 38 |
16º
|
40.5% | |
|
18º
|
16 | 32 |
17º
|
29.5% | |
|
17º
|
17 | 32 |
18º
|
33.5% | |
|
19º
|
16 | 29 |
19º
|
42% | |
|
20º
|
6 | 18 |
20º
|
89% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
93.5% | 46% |
|
Europa League
|
2.5% | 29% |
|
Mid-table
|
2.5% | 25% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2025 |
PSG
4 - 2
MAC
40%
23%
38%
|
98 | 96 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
IPS
0 - 6
MAC
9%
16%
74%
|
98 | 82 | 16 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
2 - 2
MAC
14%
19%
67%
|
98 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
MAC
8 - 0
SAL
92%
7%
2%
|
98 | 61 | 37 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
MAC
4 - 1
WHU
79%
14%
8%
|
98 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Chelsea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 2025 |
CHL
3 - 1
WOL
70%
18%
12%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
CHL
2 - 2
BOU
63%
20%
17%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
CHL
5 - 0
MOR
87%
9%
3%
|
93 | 52 | 41 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
CRY
1 - 1
CHL
25%
24%
51%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2024 |
IPS
2 - 0
CHL
15%
20%
65%
|
94 | 82 | 12 | -1 |