Mainz 05 vs B. Dortmund analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12.8%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.9%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
3.6%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.8%
68.5%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
11.9%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.7%
0-3
8.6%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.2%
0-4
4.7%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.6%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.7%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
5º
15º
7º
22
1º
8º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
36 | 83 |
1º
|
88.5% | |
|
2º
|
32 | 74 |
2º
|
67.5% | |
|
4º
|
27 | 64 |
3º
|
43% | |
|
|
10º
|
22 | 62 |
4º
|
34.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 58 |
5º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 55 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
25 | 50 |
7º
|
15% | |
|
8º
|
24 | 50 |
8º
|
17% | |
|
7º
|
24 | 49 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
6º
|
25 | 47 |
10º
|
16.5% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 46 |
11º
|
14.5% | |
|
12º
|
17 | 37 |
12º
|
22.5% | |
|
15º
|
14 | 36 |
13º
|
22% | |
|
14º
|
14 | 33 |
14º
|
19% | |
|
13º
|
16 | 33 |
15º
|
25% | |
|
16º
|
10 | 29 |
16º
|
38% | |
|
18º
|
6 | 22 |
17º
|
28.5% | |
|
17º
|
8 | 21 |
18º
|
39% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
3% | 59% |
|
Europa League
|
7.5% | 17.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
10% | 14% |
|
Mid-table
|
79.5% | 9.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
SCF
0 - 0
M05
52%
23%
25%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
M05
0 - 4
BYM
5%
10%
86%
|
88 | 99 | 11 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2024 |
M05
1 - 1
MON
32%
24%
44%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
M05
0 - 2
RBL
10%
17%
72%
|
89 | 98 | 9 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
STP
0 - 3
M05
29%
25%
46%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 2024 |
BVB
1 - 0
STR
84%
11%
5%
|
96 | 80 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
BVB
2 - 1
RBL
37%
23%
40%
|
96 | 98 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2024 |
WOL
1 - 0
BVB
14%
19%
68%
|
96 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
AUG
2 - 1
BVB
10%
16%
74%
|
97 | 84 | 13 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 2024 |
RMA
5 - 2
BVB
64%
20%
17%
|
97 | 100 | 3 | 0 |