Mainz 05 vs Bayern München analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
5%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.5%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
1%
1-0
1.6%
2-1
1.6%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
3.8%
10.3%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
4.9%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
10.3%
84.6%
Win probability
3.07
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.8%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
7.6%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
11.6%
1-4
5.8%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.1%
-3
18.8%
0-4
8.9%
1-5
3.6%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
13.2%
0-5
5.5%
1-6
1.8%
2-7
0.3%
3-8
0%
-5
7.6%
0-6
2.8%
1-7
0.8%
2-8
0.1%
-6
3.7%
0-7
1.2%
1-8
0.3%
2-9
0%
-7
1.6%
0-8
0.5%
1-9
0.1%
2-10
0%
-8
0.6%
0-9
0.2%
1-10
0%
-9
0.2%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
5º
15º
8º
51
1º
4º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
51 | 86 |
1º
|
96% | |
|
2º
|
42 | 75 |
2º
|
89% | |
|
3º
|
38 | 62 |
3º
|
28.5% | |
|
4º
|
33 | 62 |
4º
|
25.5% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 56 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 56 |
6º
|
21% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 51 |
7º
|
19% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
15.5% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 48 |
9º
|
19% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 48 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
30 | 46 |
11º
|
21.5% | |
|
12º
|
26 | 38 |
12º
|
31% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 36 |
13º
|
25% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 36 |
14º
|
27.5% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 33 |
15º
|
24% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
33.5% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
36.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
51.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 96% |
|
Champions League
|
3% | 4% |
|
Europa League
|
5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
9.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
82.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
WOL
4 - 3
M05
42%
25%
33%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
M05
2 - 0
HOF
40%
25%
35%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2024 |
HOL
0 - 3
M05
25%
23%
52%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
M05
3 - 1
BVB
13%
19%
69%
|
88 | 96 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
SCF
0 - 0
M05
52%
23%
25%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Bayern München
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec. 2024 |
SHA
1 - 5
BYM
2%
6%
92%
|
99 | 85 | 14 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
BYM
4 - 2
HEI
84%
12%
4%
|
99 | 86 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2024 |
BYM
0 - 1
LEV
57%
21%
22%
|
99 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
BVB
1 - 1
BYM
19%
18%
63%
|
99 | 96 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2024 |
BYM
1 - 0
PSG
68%
17%
14%
|
99 | 94 | 5 | 0 |