Mainz 05 vs Bayern München analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
4.5%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.5%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
0.1%
+2
0.8%
1-0
1.5%
2-1
1.4%
3-2
0.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
3.5%
9.9%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
4.7%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
9.9%
85.6%
Win probability
3.08
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
11.9%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.3%
0-3
12.2%
1-4
5.7%
2-5
1.1%
3-6
0.1%
-3
19.1%
0-4
9.4%
1-5
3.5%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0%
-4
13.5%
0-5
5.8%
1-6
1.8%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
7.8%
0-6
3%
1-7
0.8%
2-8
0.1%
-6
3.8%
0-7
1.3%
1-8
0.3%
2-9
0%
-7
1.6%
0-8
0.5%
1-9
0.1%
-8
0.6%
0-9
0.2%
1-10
0%
-9
0.2%
0-10
0.1%
-10
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
35
12º
18º
13º
72
1º
3º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
90 | 90 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
73 | 73 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
72 | 72 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
63 | 63 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 46 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 42 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
42 | 42 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
39 | 39 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
37 | 37 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
|
13º
|
35 | 35 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
34 | 34 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
33 | 33 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
17º
|
27 | 27 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 17 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 100% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2023 |
MON
2 - 2
M05
47%
24%
29%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
M05
0 - 3
LEV
21%
23%
56%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
AUG
2 - 1
M05
29%
24%
48%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
M05
1 - 3
STU
39%
25%
36%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
M05
2 - 0
MSV
72%
18%
11%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Bayern München
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
BYM
3 - 0
SCF
82%
12%
6%
|
97 | 87 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2023 |
FCK
1 - 2
BYM
2%
7%
90%
|
97 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2023 |
RBL
2 - 2
BYM
20%
19%
61%
|
97 | 93 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2023 |
PRE
0 - 4
BYM
1%
4%
96%
|
97 | 59 | 38 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
BYM
7 - 0
RTV
87%
9%
4%
|
97 | 78 | 19 | 0 |