CHAN Qualifying Final
Global 2-1
Madagascar vs Eswatini analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.6%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.5%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
16.2%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2024 |
SWZ
0 - 2
MAD
22%
24%
54%
|
63 | 55 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2024 |
COM
1 - 0
MAD
30%
26%
44%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | -1 |
| 14 Nov. 2024 |
MAD
2 - 3
TUN
19%
25%
56%
|
64 | 83 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2024 |
GAM
1 - 0
MAD
34%
26%
40%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | -1 |
| 11 Oct. 2024 |
MAD
1 - 1
GAM
42%
26%
32%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Eswatini
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec. 2024 |
SWZ
0 - 2
MAD
22%
24%
54%
|
55 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2024 |
MLI
6 - 0
SWZ
80%
14%
6%
|
55 | 80 | 25 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
SWZ
1 - 1
GNB
33%
24%
43%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
SWZ
1 - 0
ZIM
25%
25%
50%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | +1 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
ZIM
0 - 3
SWZ
59%
24%
17%
|
52 | 64 | 12 | +2 |