Championship round 14

Luton Town vs Cardiff City analysis

Luton Town Cardiff City
80 ELO 70
11.4% Tilt 3.8%
269º General ELO ranking 1219º
24º Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
69.4%
Luton Town
18.6%
Draw
12%
Cardiff City

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.4%
Win probability
Luton Town
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.7%
3-0
9%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.4%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.6%
11.9%
Win probability
Cardiff City
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Luton Town
-10%
+3%
Cardiff City

Points and table prediction

Luton Town
Their league position
Cardiff City
CURR.POS.
19º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
15
23º
15
17º
24º
23º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
21º
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Leeds United
26
88
41.5%
Sheffield United
28
86
25%
Burnley
23
82
23%
Sunderland
30
77
16.5%
Middlesbrough
21
73
11.5%
Norwich City
12º
18
71
7.5%
Watford
22
69
10.5%
West Bromwich Albion
21
68
6%
Luton Town
19º
15
68
8.5%
Blackburn Rovers
10º
19
66
10º
6%
Coventry City
17º
15
65
11º
8.5%
Swansea City
19
60
12º
9%
Bristol City
11º
19
60
13º
6%
Sheffield Wednesday
15º
18
60
14º
6%
Derby County
13º
18
57
15º
6.5%
Millwall
22
57
16º
7%
Stoke City
14º
18
57
17º
10.5%
Hull City
18º
15
53
18º
7.5%
Preston North End
20º
15
53
19º
6.5%
Oxford United
16º
17
52
20º
13%
Plymouth Argyle
22º
15
50
21º
8.5%
Portsmouth
24º
9
47
22º
15.5%
Cardiff City
21º
15
47
23º
12.5%
Queens Park Rangers
23º
10
42
24º
36%
Expected probabilities
Luton Town
Cardiff City
Promotion
3.5% 0%
Promotion play-offs
25.5% 0%
Mid-table
70.5% 53.5%
Relegation
0.5% 46.5%

ELO progression

Luton Town
Cardiff City
Blackburn Rovers
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Luton Town
Luton Town
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
01 Nov. 2024
LUT
Luton Town
1 - 1
West Bromwich Albion
WBA
52%
23%
25%
80 80 0 0
26 Oct. 2024
COV
Coventry City
3 - 2
Luton Town
LUT
42%
26%
32%
81 79 2 -1
23 Oct. 2024
LUT
Luton Town
1 - 2
Sunderland
SUN
59%
22%
19%
81 79 2 0
19 Oct. 2024
LUT
Luton Town
3 - 0
Watford
WAT
58%
22%
20%
81 78 3 0
05 Oct. 2024
SHE
Sheffield United
2 - 0
Luton Town
LUT
53%
23%
25%
82 83 1 -1

Matches

Cardiff City
Cardiff City
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
02 Nov. 2024
CAR
Cardiff City
2 - 1
Norwich City
NOR
23%
25%
52%
70 80 10 0
26 Oct. 2024
WBA
West Bromwich Albion
0 - 0
Cardiff City
CAR
58%
24%
18%
70 80 10 0
22 Oct. 2024
CAR
Cardiff City
2 - 0
Portsmouth
OPA
34%
27%
39%
69 75 6 +1
19 Oct. 2024
CAR
Cardiff City
5 - 0
Plymouth Argyle
PLY
35%
27%
38%
68 74 6 +1
06 Oct. 2024
BRI
Bristol City
1 - 1
Cardiff City
CAR
58%
24%
18%
68 77 9 0