Championship round 14

Luton Town vs Cardiff City analysis

Luton Town Cardiff City
81 ELO 70
11.4% Tilt 3.8%
279º General ELO ranking 1232º
24º Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
66.3%
Luton Town
19.9%
Draw
13.8%
Cardiff City

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.3%
Win probability
Luton Town
2.06
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
12%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.9%
13.8%
Win probability
Cardiff City
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →

Points and table prediction

Luton Town
Their league position
Cardiff City
CURR.POS.
21º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
15
10º
23º
12º
15
17º
24º
23º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
22º
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Sheffield United
31
88
44%
Leeds United
29
87
23.5%
Burnley
27
82
18%
Sunderland
31
75
13%
Middlesbrough
24
74
13.5%
Watford
26
70
5%
West Bromwich Albion
25
69
10%
Blackburn Rovers
22
68
10%
Norwich City
14º
18
67
5%
Bristol City
10º
22
66
10º
9%
Coventry City
18º
16
65
11º
7.5%
Luton Town
21º
15
65
12º
4.5%
Swansea City
11º
19
60
13º
8%
Sheffield Wednesday
15º
18
59
14º
6.5%
Millwall
23
58
15º
9.5%
Derby County
12º
19
57
16º
10%
Stoke City
13º
19
57
17º
9.5%
Preston North End
20º
15
53
18º
12.5%
Oxford United
16º
17
52
19º
8%
Plymouth Argyle
17º
17
51
20º
12%
Hull City
19º
15
50
21º
13%
Portsmouth
23º
12
50
22º
9%
Cardiff City
22º
15
44
23º
19.5%
Queens Park Rangers
24º
10
39
24º
46.5%
Expected probabilities
Luton Town
Cardiff City
Promotion
0% 0%
Promotion play-offs
20% 1%
Mid-table
79.5% 40.5%
Relegation
0.5% 58.5%

ELO progression

Luton Town
Cardiff City
Hull City
Sheffield Wednesday
Queens Park Rangers
Leeds United
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Luton Town
Luton Town
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
01 Nov. 2024
LUT
Luton Town
1 - 1
West Bromwich Albion
WBA
52%
23%
25%
80 80 0 0
26 Oct. 2024
COV
Coventry City
3 - 2
Luton Town
LUT
42%
26%
32%
81 79 2 -1
23 Oct. 2024
LUT
Luton Town
1 - 2
Sunderland
SUN
59%
22%
19%
81 79 2 0
19 Oct. 2024
LUT
Luton Town
3 - 0
Watford
WAT
58%
22%
20%
81 78 3 0
05 Oct. 2024
SHE
Sheffield United
2 - 0
Luton Town
LUT
53%
23%
25%
82 83 1 -1

Matches

Cardiff City
Cardiff City
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
02 Nov. 2024
CAR
Cardiff City
2 - 1
Norwich City
NOR
23%
25%
52%
70 80 10 0
26 Oct. 2024
WBA
West Bromwich Albion
0 - 0
Cardiff City
CAR
58%
24%
18%
70 80 10 0
22 Oct. 2024
CAR
Cardiff City
2 - 0
Portsmouth
OPA
34%
27%
39%
69 75 6 +1
19 Oct. 2024
CAR
Cardiff City
5 - 0
Plymouth Argyle
PLY
35%
27%
38%
68 74 6 +1
06 Oct. 2024
BRI
Bristol City
1 - 1
Cardiff City
CAR
58%
24%
18%
68 77 9 0