Lens vs Nantes analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.3%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.7%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18.5%
10.2%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
3º
9º
6º
14
3º
17º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
37 | 82 |
1º
|
95.5% | |
|
2º
|
30 | 65 |
2º
|
36% | |
|
3º
|
30 | 64 |
3º
|
30.5% | |
|
4º
|
27 | 64 |
4º
|
24% | |
|
5º
|
25 | 59 |
5º
|
23.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
24 | 55 |
6º
|
27% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 52 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
12º
|
17 | 48 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 46 |
9º
|
16.5% | |
|
11º
|
19 | 44 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 43 |
11º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 42 |
12º
|
20.5% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 40 |
13º
|
23% | |
|
18º
|
9 | 31 |
14º
|
20% | |
|
|
14º
|
14 | 30 |
15º
|
21% | |
|
15º
|
13 | 29 |
16º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
13 | 29 |
17º
|
13.5% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 26 |
18º
|
39.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
7.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
12% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
17% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
27% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
36.5% | 46.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 24% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 29.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
PSG
1 - 0
LEN
70%
18%
12%
|
90 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
LEN
0 - 2
LIL
41%
27%
32%
|
90 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
ASS
0 - 2
LEN
22%
24%
54%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
STR
2 - 2
LEN
31%
26%
43%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
LEN
0 - 0
NIC
52%
24%
24%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Nantes
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
NAN
1 - 2
MAR
16%
22%
62%
|
79 | 91 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
STR
3 - 1
NAN
60%
23%
18%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
NAN
1 - 1
NIC
24%
25%
50%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
LYO
2 - 0
NAN
75%
16%
9%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2024 |
NAN
2 - 2
ASS
40%
26%
34%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |