FA Trophy 1/64
Global 4-3
Lancaster City vs Guiseley analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.4%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.4%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.2%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.9%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
49.5%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
5.4%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.1%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lancaster City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2018 |
LAN
0 - 0
RFC
50%
24%
27%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2018 |
LAN
2 - 1
HYD
28%
25%
47%
|
29 | 40 | 11 | +3 |
| 10 Nov. 2018 |
LAN
1 - 0
OUF
46%
22%
32%
|
29 | 27 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2018 |
WIT
1 - 0
LAN
68%
18%
14%
|
29 | 37 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2018 |
MAR
0 - 2
LAN
56%
22%
22%
|
28 | 33 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Guiseley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2018 |
GUI
1 - 1
SPE
32%
24%
44%
|
40 | 45 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2018 |
GUI
4 - 3
CAM
24%
24%
52%
|
38 | 50 | 12 | +2 |
| 06 Nov. 2018 |
ASH
1 - 0
GUI
45%
24%
31%
|
38 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2018 |
DAR
0 - 0
GUI
52%
23%
25%
|
38 | 40 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2018 |
GUI
1 - 3
BLY
52%
23%
26%
|
40 | 36 | 4 | -2 |