Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Köln analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.9%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.1%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.6%
1-0
7%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.7%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
37.3%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.8%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
1º
8º
4º
31
1º
13º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
31 | 64 |
1º
|
45.5% | |
|
3º
|
28 | 59 |
2º
|
18.5% | |
|
2º
|
29 | 57 |
3º
|
14% | |
|
|
8º
|
26 | 56 |
4º
|
14% | |
|
6º
|
28 | 56 |
5º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
28 | 52 |
6º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 52 |
7º
|
13.5% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 51 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 50 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
5º
|
28 | 50 |
10º
|
5.5% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 49 |
11º
|
14% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 45 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
14º
|
20 | 42 |
13º
|
21% | |
|
11º
|
22 | 41 |
14º
|
24.5% | |
|
15º
|
16 | 35 |
15º
|
29.5% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 33 |
16º
|
32.5% | |
|
17º
|
13 | 29 |
17º
|
38.5% | |
|
18º
|
11 | 24 |
18º
|
63% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
16.5% | 71.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
13% | 9.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
70.5% | 19% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
HER
0 - 2
F95
35%
24%
41%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
F95
1 - 0
HAN
54%
23%
24%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
ULM
1 - 2
F95
18%
22%
60%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
SGD
2 - 0
F95
26%
23%
51%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
F95
0 - 0
KSC
51%
22%
27%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
KOL
1 - 2
MAG
59%
21%
20%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
S04
1 - 3
KOL
27%
23%
50%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
KOL
5 - 0
EBT
67%
19%
14%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
SVS
2 - 3
KOL
16%
20%
64%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
ELV
2 - 2
KOL
25%
22%
53%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | 0 |