Fiorentina vs Napoli analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.5%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.7%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.4%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
35.8%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
10.4%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
3º
15º
7º
44
1º
19º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
3º
|
40 | 89 |
1º
|
70.5% | |
|
2º
|
41 | 86 |
2º
|
52% | |
|
|
1º
|
44 | 81 |
3º
|
45.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 72 |
4º
|
25.5% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 69 |
5º
|
25% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 68 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
32 | 66 |
7º
|
33% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 56 |
8º
|
28.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 54 |
9º
|
35% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 47 |
10º
|
28% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 44 |
11º
|
20% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 42 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 39 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 38 |
14º
|
10% | |
|
15º
|
19 | 38 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
17º
|
17 | 36 |
16º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
18 | 34 |
17º
|
12.5% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 33 |
18º
|
18.5% | |
|
19º
|
14 | 30 |
19º
|
17.5% | |
|
20º
|
10 | 29 |
20º
|
33.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0.5% | 4.5% |
|
Champions League
|
12% | 85.5% |
|
Europa League
|
13.5% | 7.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
21.5% | 1% |
|
Mid-table
|
52.5% | 1.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fiorentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
JUV
2 - 2
FIO
61%
23%
16%
|
95 | 99 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2024 |
FIO
1 - 2
UDI
74%
16%
10%
|
95 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2024 |
VIT
1 - 1
FIO
23%
24%
53%
|
94 | 88 | 6 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
BOL
1 - 0
FIO
36%
26%
39%
|
95 | 92 | 3 | -1 |
| 12 Dec. 2024 |
FIO
7 - 0
LAS
85%
11%
5%
|
94 | 80 | 14 | +1 |
Matches
Napoli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
NAP
1 - 0
VNZ
80%
14%
6%
|
98 | 84 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
GEN
1 - 2
NAP
19%
24%
57%
|
98 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
UDI
1 - 3
NAP
21%
24%
55%
|
97 | 89 | 8 | +1 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
NAP
0 - 1
LAZ
49%
24%
26%
|
97 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2024 |
LAZ
3 - 1
NAP
44%
25%
32%
|
97 | 96 | 1 | 0 |