Fafe vs Varzim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.7%
27.3%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.3%
33.7%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.8%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+55%
+18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
23
1º
5º
1º
19
1º
5º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
23 | 34 |
1º
|
32.5% | |
|
2º
|
22 | 33 |
2º
|
30% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 32 |
3º
|
21.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
19 | 29 |
4º
|
25% | |
|
5º
|
15 | 26 |
5º
|
28% | |
|
6º
|
15 | 26 |
6º
|
27% | |
|
7º
|
11 | 18 |
7º
|
26% | |
|
9º
|
9 | 17 |
8º
|
22% | |
|
8º
|
10 | 17 |
9º
|
26.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 16 |
10º
|
40% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
90.5% | 58.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
9.5% | 41.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fafe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
VIL
0 - 3
FAF
55%
23%
23%
|
47 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
ANA
1 - 1
FAF
36%
26%
38%
|
47 | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
FAF
4 - 1
AMA
24%
27%
49%
|
45 | 57 | 12 | +2 |
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
FAF
2 - 1
SAO
43%
26%
31%
|
44 | 45 | 1 | +1 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
BRA
2 - 0
FAF
64%
21%
14%
|
45 | 53 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Varzim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2024 |
VAR
2 - 1
ANA
64%
21%
15%
|
52 | 42 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
VAR
2 - 0
SAO
54%
25%
21%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
VAR
1 - 0
BOA
7%
14%
79%
|
49 | 74 | 25 | +2 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
TRO
3 - 2
VAR
38%
29%
33%
|
50 | 47 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2024 |
VAR
3 - 0
SAN
66%
20%
14%
|
50 | 41 | 9 | 0 |