Derby County vs Grimsby Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.6%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.4%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.7%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
17.5%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2022 |
DER
2 - 1
POS
39%
27%
34%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2022 |
DER
1 - 0
WBA
29%
26%
45%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2022 |
FLE
0 - 0
DER
25%
28%
47%
|
65 | 54 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2022 |
STF
0 - 0
DER
30%
29%
41%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2022 |
DER
2 - 1
BAR
46%
27%
27%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Grimsby Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2022 |
WAL
1 - 2
GRI
39%
27%
34%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2022 |
GRI
0 - 3
NTT
14%
24%
62%
|
56 | 79 | 23 | -1 |
| 20 Aug. 2022 |
GRI
0 - 0
SUT
34%
29%
38%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2022 |
ROC
0 - 1
GRI
40%
26%
34%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2022 |
GRI
4 - 0
CRE
44%
26%
31%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | +1 |