Derby County vs Bury analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.6%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.5%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.6%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.2%
14.3%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec. 1928 |
NEW
4 - 1
DER
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1928 |
DER
6 - 0
WHU
65%
18%
17%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 01 Dec. 1928 |
LIV
3 - 0
DER
59%
21%
21%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 24 Nov. 1928 |
DER
3 - 4
LEE
68%
17%
14%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1928 |
MUD
0 - 1
DER
48%
24%
28%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Bury
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 1928 |
BCF
2 - 1
HUR
50%
23%
28%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 1928 |
EVE
1 - 0
BCF
64%
19%
17%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 1928 |
BCF
1 - 0
ARS
53%
21%
26%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1928 |
BBU
1 - 1
BCF
62%
20%
18%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1928 |
BCF
1 - 3
SUN
50%
21%
29%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |