Derby County vs Birmingham City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.7%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.3%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.8%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
18.6%
19.8%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec. 1927 |
MID
3 - 3
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1927 |
DER
6 - 0
BBU
56%
21%
23%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 26 Nov. 1927 |
DER
4 - 6
SHW
68%
17%
15%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 1927 |
CAR
4 - 4
DER
54%
24%
23%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 1927 |
DER
0 - 3
EVE
53%
22%
25%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec. 1927 |
BIR
1 - 2
WHU
45%
24%
31%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 1927 |
LIV
2 - 3
BIR
65%
18%
17%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1927 |
BIR
0 - 2
LEI
44%
26%
30%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 1927 |
OPA
2 - 2
BIR
40%
23%
37%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 1927 |
BIR
1 - 1
ARS
41%
25%
34%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |