Apertura Bolivia Quarter-finals
Global 3-3
Aurora vs Independiente Petrolero analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.1%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.1%
19.8%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.1%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2024 |
IND
0 - 1
AUR
40%
28%
32%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ROY
0 - 0
AUR
35%
28%
37%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2024 |
AUR
4 - 2
BLO
58%
23%
19%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | +1 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
BLO
1 - 0
AUR
35%
28%
38%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 2024 |
AUR
4 - 1
ROY
56%
24%
21%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente Petrolero
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2024 |
IND
0 - 1
AUR
40%
28%
32%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2024 |
IND
3 - 2
GUA
43%
27%
31%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
REA
0 - 1
IND
65%
20%
15%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 2024 |
IND
1 - 0
UDV
40%
28%
32%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
NAC
3 - 1
IND
72%
17%
12%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | 0 |