Aurora vs FBC Melgar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.2%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.4%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19%
25.9%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.9%
40.9%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
9.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.6%
0-2
7%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.3%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Dec. 2023 |
AUR
3 - 0
VAC
55%
24%
21%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
LIB
0 - 1
AUR
29%
28%
44%
|
67 | 51 | 16 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2023 |
AUR
3 - 1
BLO
52%
25%
24%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Nov. 2023 |
OPE
1 - 0
AUR
49%
26%
25%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
AUR
0 - 3
STR
37%
28%
35%
|
67 | 71 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
FBC Melgar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
VAL
3 - 2
MEL
32%
28%
41%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2024 |
MEL
2 - 3
GAR
63%
21%
15%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2024 |
MEL
1 - 1
BOL
53%
22%
25%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
BIN
1 - 2
MEL
26%
27%
47%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2023 |
MEL
2 - 1
MAN
74%
18%
9%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | +1 |